With the substantial growth of solar photovoltaic installations worldwide, forecasting irradiance becomes a critical step in providing a reliable integration of solar electricity into electric power grids. In Singapore, the number of PV installation has increased with a growth rate of 70% over the past 6 years. Within the next decade, solar power could represent up to 20% of the instant power generation. Challenges for PV grid integration in Singapore arise from the high variability in cloud movements and irradiance patterns due to the tropical climate. For a thorough analysis and modeling of the impact of an increasing share of variable PV power on the electric power system, it is indispensable (i) to have an accurate conversion model from irradiance to solar power generation, and (ii) to carry out irradiance forecasting on various time scales. In this work, we demonstrate how common assumptions and simplifications in PV power conversion methods negatively affect the output estimates of PV systems power in a tropical and densely-built environment such as in Singapore. In the second part, we propose and test a novel hybrid model for short-term irradiance forecasting for short-term intervals. The hybrid model outperforms the persistence forecast and other common statistical methods.

The proposition of Net Plus-energy Buildings (NPEB) leads to the need to carry out studies of load matching in contrast with the grid impacts of distributed generation (DG). This paper performs simulations with the EnergyPlus software tool concerning a NPEB operating in four Brazilian metropolitan areas. The analyses include photovoltaic (PV) performance parameters and Load Matching and Grid Interaction indicators (LMGI). New grid impact indicators are defined in order to study the impacts of DG in the power grid. In the second stage, the work investigates economic aspects under net metering supporting. Results show the annual amount of electrical demand covered by PV varies from 29 to 51% with more potential in situations with higher PV production and higher cooling load, and the annual PV electricity that supplies the loads varies from 24 to 36% according to the seasonal variations of PV-load correlation. The levels of exported electricity into the grid are high in Brazil with annual mean power peaks surrounding 0.7 but can surpass 0.8 in the sunniest periods. The economy demonstrates the building achieves grid parity from 6 to 18% discount rates and the payback time is given for different scenarios of investment costs, discount rates and electricity tariffs.

Anthropogenic haze, caused at least in parts by forest and agricultural land clearing fires in Sumatra (Indonesia), is occasionally causing air quality issues in Singapore, located 150–300 km east of the majority of these “hot spots”. The resulting air pollution partially blocks sunlight from reaching the ground, and consequently affects the electric power generation of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Singapore. In this work, a methodology is presented to estimate the haze-induced reduction of the light intensity reaching PV panels and the corresponding loss in the electric energy yield. An assessment of a major haze event in June 2013 is the basis for the loss analysis, which takes into account data filtering techniques in order to isolate cloudless conditions for inter-comparison between clear and hazy days. Data from previous years in non-hazy conditions serve as baseline for the determination of the clear sky conditions for Singapore. The novel method is further applied to investigate the power output of ten PV systems in Singapore during the June 2013 haze event. It is found that poor air quality levels during this event caused yield losses of PV systems in Singapore in the range of 15–25%.

The electrical resistance showerhead is the water heating technology used in over 70% of the Brazilian dwellings. These high power (5–8 kW are typical) instant heating devices contribute significantly to the demand peak in the early evening, and are a major burden to distribution utilities in Brazil. The objective of this paper is to define consumer showering patterns, and analyze the influence of the power demand measurement time resolution on the potential of peak time power demand reduction provided by Domestic Solar Hot Water (DSHW) systems. Results show that the measurement of electrical power demand in a 15-min interval is not adequate to evaluate and verify the benefits provided by the use of DSHW systems, because it heavily underestimates the active power demand reduction at peak hours. This work suggests that a 1-min time resolution can be considered appropriate to assess the potential impacts caused by the use of DSHW systems on the peak hours demand reduction.

This is the second part of the paper “Simplified method for shading-loss analysis in BIPV systems”. The objective of Part 2 is to apply the simplified method described in Part 1 in order to estimate the influence of partial shadings on the performance of four installed and in operation BIPV systems. The method consists in identifying and quantifying the shading on a surface, relating the fraction of shaded area with the percentage of incident irradiation reduction during the same period, in order to propose a shading index (SI) that represents the energy losses on partially shaded PV systems. SI was validated through the analysed case studies and it was proved to be a convenient way of estimating the PV generation of partially shaded PV systems. This method is independent from the electric configuration and can be used for already installed PV systems, or surfaces under investigation for PV installations, both through manual calculations and also through calculations using dedicated software packages.

The proposition of Net Plus-energy Buildings (NPEB) leads to the need to carry out studies of load matching in contrast with the grid impacts of distributed generation (DG). This paper performs simulations with the EnergyPlus software tool concerning a NPEB operating in four Brazilian metropolitan areas. The analyses include photovoltaic (PV) performance parameters and Load Matching and Grid Interaction indicators (LMGI). New grid impact indicators are defined in order to study the impacts of DG in the power grid. In the second stage, the work investigates economic aspects under net metering supporting. Results show the annual amount of electrical demand covered by PV varies from 29 to 51% with more potential in situations with higher PV production and higher cooling load, and the annual PV electricity that supplies the loads varies from 24 to 36% according to the seasonal variations of PV-load correlation. The levels of exported electricity into the grid are high in Brazil with annual mean power peaks surrounding 0.7 but can surpass 0.8 in the sunniest periods. The economy demonstrates the building achieves grid parity from 6 to 18% discount rates and the payback time is given for different scenarios of investment costs, discount rates and electricity tariffs.

This is the second part of the paper “Simplified method for shading-loss analysis in BIPV systems”. The objective of Part 2 is to apply the simplified method described in Part 1 in order to estimate the influence of partial shadings on the performance of four installed and in operation BIPV systems. The method consists in identifying and quantifying the shading on a surface, relating the fraction of shaded area with the percentage of incident irradiation reduction during the same period, in order to propose a shading index (SI) that represents the energy losses on partially shaded PV systems. SI was validated through the analysed case studies and it was proved to be a convenient way of estimating the PV generation of partially shaded PV systems. This method is independent from the electric configuration and can be used for already installed PV systems, or surfaces under investigation for PV installations, both through manual calculations and also through calculations using dedicated software packages.

This paper proposes a simplified method to determine an index to quantify the influence of partial shadings on the performance of BIPV systems based on the relation between the shading percentages and the reduction of the incident irradiation on a given surface. The research is divided in two papers: Part 1: Theoretical study and Part 2: Application in case studies. Part 1 consists in identifying and quantifying the shading on a surface, and relates the fraction of shaded area with the percentage of incident irradiation reduction during the same period, in order to propose a shading index (SI) that represents the energy losses due to shadings on PV systems. The method was developed for a theoretical shaded case study simulated in two cities located at low latitude, tropical regions: Singapore (1.35°N) and Florianópolis-Brazil (27.48°S). Results showed that the shading percentage on the analysed surface on an annual basis is closer to the percentage of incident irradiation reduction at same period than when these values are compared on other time bases, as hourly, daily or monthly. Therefore, in this case, the annual percentage of shading can be adopted as the SI. SI was validated using different computer software packages and it was proved to be a convenient way of estimation the PV generation of similar cases of partially shaded PV systems, that could be used even before the PV electrical desing has been done.

This work presents a method to evaluate, from the distribution utility's perspective, the impacts of adopting Domestic Solar Water Heating (DSWH) systems in Brazil, based on demand measurements carried out on two groups of residential households. For the 12 months period evaluated, the case-study shows that using DSWH results in savings of 198 kWh (38%), and active power demand savings at peak times of 860 W (42%) per individual unit. For the distribution utility and per individual unit, using DSWH leads to avoided costs of $ 27.59 (38%), avoided costs due to peak time demand reduction of $ 170.2 (42%), and annual avoided costs of $ 197.79 (41%). This work clearly shows that in the residential section the tariff model and structure is strongly distorted, since it only accounts for the energy consumption per residential unit, and completely disregards the costs associated with power demand availability. Our results show that in Brazil the distribution utility charges only some 15% of the real cost of a hot shower based on electric showerheads.

Rooftop residential photovoltaic (PV) generation is becoming more widespread among homeowners. A proper PV system design is crucial in order to avoid annual electricity production in excess of residential demand in countries where a net metering scheme is in place like in Brazil. It is therefore important that the information related to the average solar irradiation incident on the solar modules is accurately assessed, allowing precise estimates of photovoltaic electricity production. This work defines the criteria for the proper choice of a freely available irradiation database for the Brazilian territory and compares the results with the PVsyst-Meteonorm, a well-known modeling system. We demonstrate that, for Brazil, the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) information provided by Openei-SWERA series is the best fit to different locations in the Brazilian territory, after introducing the corrections made by the horizontal to the plane-of-array transposition algorithms.