Multiscale modeling to optimize thermal performance design for urban social housing: A case study

Climate change impacts the entire planet, and its effects are particularly evident in urban areas. Northern cities in Brazil experience a hot and humid climate, which poses a challenge to achieving high levels of thermal performance in housing developments. This challenge is amplified by the fact that most residents do not have access to air conditioning systems, making it difficult to mitigate the heat. Current technologies have the potential to confront this critical situation by diagnosing thermal performance and implementing optimized strategies for modeling multiple climatic scales, including the city, neighborhood, and indoor environment. Therefore, this study aims to fill a research gap by utilizing simulations to predict and optimize the thermal performance of naturally ventilated social housing in hot and humid equatorial climates, while considering the effects of climate change. Adaptive modeling principles were applied, fostering synergy among the meso, local, and microclimatic scales through a unidirectional simulation. The results revealed that the region experiencing the highest real estate growth has witnessed a significant increase in temperature over the years. The comparison between historical and future climate files confirmed predictions of climate change in a pessimistic scenario, particularly regarding temperature and relative humidity indicators. When climate files adjusted for future climate conditions were used, it was discovered that passive building design strategies had a stronger impact on the microclimate compared to heat island mitigation strategies. This impact led to better building thermal performance. However, at the building scale, thermal performance is highly influenced by climate change and could be reduced by up to 11% (in 2020) and 39% (in 2050).